Page 274 - Special Topic Session (STS) - Volume 4

STS587 Hui W. et al.
(7) Some credible verdicts
Official data understate the changes of real output (Feldstein 2017).
According to Groshen & Moyer (2017), downward biases in the BEA official
GDP are in the order of 0.39% – 0.43% per year between 2000 and 2015.
Schreyer (2017) estimates downward biases for OECD GDP averaged at 0.45%
since 2004. Current measurement procedures may understate the true growth
of real GDP and overstate prices (Hulten 2017).

2. Methodology – improve/expanding GDP measures
(1) Taking satellite account approaches
Satellite accounts derive their name from the fact that they would orbit
around the core national accounts. Satellite accounts are pursued for different
purposes and hence take different forms:
Experimental in nature; Expand scope of national accounts; Provide more
incremental detail of an industry or economy; Modify existing structure.
Examples include digital economy, health care output, education output, R&D
satellite accounts.
(2) Searching for better measurement techniques
• Measuring quality change for improved goods
Different hedonic models; Alternative data sources; Applied to more products.
• Dealing with new goods
Refining Hick’s reservation price methodology; Applied to different products;
Using alternative data sources.
(3) Making use of big data
• Enormous amounts of administrative data and transaction data are
potential available for compiling GDP statistics
Credit card transaction data; Scanner data; Motor vehicle registration data
• Improving the accuracy of GDP statistics
Empirical evidence on better estimation methods; Checking consistencies
across related measures with multi data sources
(4) Measuring intangible capital
Further research on scope and classification of intangibles; Developing
output-based measures of intangibles; How to measures capital services for
intangibles.
(5) Developing better output measures for services industries
• Key services industries for further research on output measurement
Health care; Education; Finance
• Major issues remaining
Health care – how to account for quality change
Education – what is the output of education
Finance – how to treat risk premium
(6) Measuring globalization

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