Page 28 - Invited Paper Session (IPS) - Volume 1

IPS30 Diana B.
Estonia’s greatest problem in this respect is the inaccuracy of residence data
in the Population Register.
This has forced Statistics Estonia to develop an ‘index methodology’ to
verify and specify the register data on the basis of a large number of other
registers and data sources. In the REGREL pilot census in 2019, this
methodology will be tested in three particular cases – residency index,
partnership index, and placement index (Tiit et al., 2017a, b).
All these indexes use Estonia’s administrative databases as sources of
information, which can be combined to form an interoperative data system
with common identifiers. Assuming that, in the present day, a person living in
Estonia inevitably leaves certain traces of activity in the form of records in
different databases, it is possible to verify the person's residence in the
country, as well as connections between persons and their locations, on an
annual basis. Such verification is based on signs of life, signs of partnership
and signs of placement that are recorded in registers every year (Tiit et al.,
2017 b). The annual indexes are established as linear combinations of the
respective signs, which makes it possible to trace the change in a person’s
status in different years.
The indexes are calculated for all persons who have received an Estonian
personal identification code. This makes it possible to monitor transnational
persons who have left Estonia, incl. to detect whether they have returned or
how trans-boundary commuters move between their homeland and other
countries (Tiit, et al., 2018).
Even though the general indexing principles have been established and
model parameters have undergone empirical assessment, the methodology
itself is still developing and new signs can be added depending on new
information (incl. big data) becoming available(Beltadze, 2018). The accuracy
of the index-based estimates is assessed through use and additional surveys,
and the results are provided with potential estimation error values. Addition
of new information (further signs) will result in consistent improvement of the
accuracy of index-based estimates.
The index-based methodology has been presented in research articles and
at international conferences. Population statisticians of several countries who
face similar problems have expressed interest in the practical applicability of
the indexes.
The baseline situation for a register-based census can be quite diverse in
different countries but there are international requirements and standards for
the outputs of register-based population and housing censuses. These
requirements are the same, irrespective of the particular census methodology.
Considering this background, it is very important to plan and execute the
necessary number of successful pilot censuses before the first register-based
population and housing census.

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