Page 13 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 1

CPS651 El Mostafa T.
most spectacular demographic characteristic that will be a feature of Morocco
in the next three or four decades ". After the challenge of controlling fertility,
Morocco will have to take on a new one, that of economic and social support
of the ageing population.

The demographic transition towards an upward demographic ageing

The continuous progress in raising life at birth summarizes the effects of
the decline in mortality at all ages of life. During the period 1950-1955, life
expectancy at birth in Morocco was only 43; it currently exceeds 72 years old.
In the process of this demographic transition, lower risk of dying at each age
was accompanied by a decline in fertility which also contributes to the ageing
population. The average number of children per woman (fertility rate, or TFR)
stood at 2.21 children per woman in 2014 against 2.47 in 2004, knowing it was
7 in 1960s. In urban areas, fertility has fallen below the replacement level of
generations with a TFR of 2.01 versus 2.55 in 2004. In rural areas, it stood at
2.55 in 2014 against 3.10 in 2004. This trend is moving to a convergence in
fertility between the two areas of residence.
All these changes had the impact on the age structure in Morocco which
has experienced more or less lucid transformation. Thus, between 2004 and
2014 the share of young people under 15 declined from 31.2% to 28.0%, the
working age population (15-59 years) remains important in passing from
61.2% to 62.4% while the share of people aged 60 and over is steadily
increasing (9.6% 2014).
Figure 1- Age structure (2004 and 2014)

Source: HCP RGPH 2014

1.1 The ageing of the Moroccan population: an ongoing process
A demographic revolution is underway in the world. Today the number of
people aged 60 and over is about 900 million; this number will double by 2025
and reach two billion by 2050, the majority in developing countries. In 2050,
80% of older people will be living in low- and middle-income countries.
Like many countries in the world, Morocco hasn’t escaped this
phenomenon because its elderly population represents a progressive gradual

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