Page 166 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 3

CPS1982 Dmitri J. et al.

Figure 2. Official and alternative population estimates* of the Moldovan
population (left panel) and life expectancy at birth in Moldova based on
official and adjusted population estimates (right panel).
Source: (Penina et al., 2015)
* Since 1998 official population counts do not include Transnistria region

4. Changes in definition of population
Another important issue concerns changes in population definition.
Procedure of implementation of the new definition is decisive in such cases. In
2000s, Poland faced a massive out-migration that followed the EU
enlargement of 2004. This flow was understated by the official statistics after
the census of 2002. It was expected that the population counts will be
corrected downward after the next population census of 2011. But Statistics
Poland has unexpectedly decided to change the official definition of the
population status from the permanently resident (2010 and earlier) to the
usually resident (from 2011 and later) (Fihel and Jasilionis, 2016). It led to the
upward correction of the population counts. Unfortunately, Statistics Poland
did not make any attempt to reestimate age-specific population counts back
to previous censuses. Only population estimates for 2010 were recalculated
using the new concept. As a result, there is a clear rupture in the official data
(Figure 4). Due to irregular migration pattern the standard HMD inter-censal
method for reconstruction of annual population estimates is not applicable.
The HMD team at MPIDR had to use unofficial age-specific population
estimates recalculated back to 2000 by Tymicki et al. (2015) and to apply a
special adjustment factor in 2000 to take into account the change of the
population concept from the permanently resident to a broader usually
resident concept.

5. Infant mortality
In general, the HMD does not apply any correction to infant or early
childhood mortality, but in many cases quality of registration of infant death
can be considered as a useful indicator of the general quality of mortality data.

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