Page 291 - Invited Paper Session (IPS) - Volume 1

IPS153 Jay L. et al.
Using administrative data to develop a stocks-based approach
Our previous Administrative Data Census research focused on our
progress in developing a future stocks-based approach where we combine
linked administrative data and applied a set of rules to produce a Statistical
Population Dataset (SPD). This work demonstrated the potential for
producing estimates of the usually resident population using administrative
data, but early research showed the need for further refinements to produce
estimates about the flows of the population between two points in time. It
has also highlighted the importance of using a greater range of data sources
and the need for a survey which can measure and adjust for coverage issues
seen for different areas and different groups in the population.
Using the knowledge that we have developed from analysing our SPDv2
and understanding key data sources, we have developed a set of data-driven
rules that we can use as part of a future system for determining which
administrative records are part of the usually resident population. This
approach focuses on identifying the data source that provides the best
coverage for a given age group (‘first hierarchy’). We then supplement any
gaps in coverage, or limitations of that source by using other sources, to
create a ‘hierarchy’ of rules (‘second hierarchy’ etc.). Developing rules in this
way will enable us to be flexible as new administrative sources become
available, or as sources change over time.
We have developed an initial approach for specific age groups based on
our understanding of the coverage and quality of each data source. As an
example, our work on the 5-15 age group illustrates this approach. We have
used the England and Wales School Census as our ‘single source’ as this
provides high coverage of children attending state schools, which represents
a large proportion of this age group. We then supplement this with ‘activity’
from Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) Child Benefit data and have
included records from NHS Patient Register (PR) to account for gaps in
coverage (for example, children attending private schools and home-
schooled children who are not covered by the School Census data).

Using administrative data to develop a flows-based approach
In the existing system for producing official estimates of the England and
Wales population, we use a cohort component method. Our starting point is
the ten-yearly census. Each year, we age everyone on, use administrative data
to add births, remove deaths and make adjustments for internal migration. We
use the IPS to estimate international migration flows (people immigrating into
the UK, and those emigrating from the UK), and distribute that to local levels
using administrative data. Once these flows have been added to the previous
year’s stock total, we are able to produce a stock total for the current year.
This can be thought of as a flows-based approach. Our ambition is to make

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