Page 133 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 3

CPS1970 Nurul Aityqah Y. et al.
Table 1 shows the life expectancies of male, female and total population
for the next 10 years. From the table, we can see that the life expectancy of
both male and female population increases for the next 10 years. The female
population in Malaysia is expected to outlive the male population.

Table 1: Estimation of life expectancies for the next 10 years
Male Female
Year LC LM MMS LC LM MMS
2016 68.29 73.13 73.14 72.24 77.05 77.14
2017 68.45 73.30 73.32 72.35 77.16 77.26
2018 68.62 73.47 73.50 72.45 77.27 77.38
2019 68.78 73.65 73.69 72.56 77.37 77.50
2020 68.95 73.82 73.87 72.67 77.48 77.62
2021 69.12 74.00 74.06 72.77 77.59 77.74
2022 69.29 74.18 74.25 72.87 77.69 77.86
2023 69.46 74.36 74.44 72.98 77.80 77.97
2024 69.64 74.55 74.64 73.08 77.90 78.09
2025 69.82 74.73 74.83 73.18 78.00 78.20

Figure 2 shows the estimated mortality index for male, female and total
population in Malaysia for 2016 to 2025. It shows a downward trend, which
are similar to the observed years (1991 to 2015). ARIMA (0,1,0) is used to
forecast the mortality index. We obtain the drift parameter by using equation
(9). Estimated can be obtained by finding the sum of drift parameter and

−1 which is shown in equation (8).

Figure 2: Forecast of from 2016 to 2025 with ARIMA (0,1,0)

Tables 2, 3 and 4 present the performance of out-of-sample prediction of LC
model and its variants for female, male and total populations. We used mean
error (ME), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean
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