Page 71 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 3

CPS1946 Jittima D. et al.
Up to this point, justification for the state of property market is an
interesting issue. Referring to business practice in property sector adopted by
the Agency for Real Estate Affairs (AREA) , achieving 70% sold-out is regarded
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as breakeven or near-breakeven for estate projects, so it is logical to adopt
70% Threshold for the same purpose. In plain words, if the OR exceeds 70
percent, it signifies positive condition, also true contrariwise. Notwithstanding,
one data constraint should be cautious, the OR it is not able to differentiate
between two types of residency: “owner” and “renter”.
Back to the OR, low occupancy can be resulted by different determinants.
One interpretation is it may cause by multi-unit owners which result in leaving
some units unoccupied. The other cause may by former tenants who had
moved out for reasons. In such cases, this could contribute some absence to
the demand for units. As a result, rendition of the occupancy rate has to be
done with proper judgments. On the other end, supply factor could pose some
effect to the OR, new supply can lead to a sudden increase in total units while
the number of occupied rooms remain stable or slightly increasing. With
reference to the scenario, low OR may be temporary, since it could take a few
months for new tenants to move in. Technically speaking, by monitoring speed
of move-in, some potential indicators can be constructed to measure real
demand for units of the projects launched.

3. Empirical Findings
Results from adopting power meter data to approximate the OR for
residential units in 3 territories can be summarized as follows:
a) Average occupancy rate, from 2014-18, had soared above 70 percent.
To be precise, the OR during the period stood at 80, 70 and 85 percent
for Bangkok, Nonthaburi and Samut Prakan respectively. Following
more recent data, it reveals overall OR had extended to 81.8 percent in
August 2018. For Nonthaburi, improvements in OR are resulted by
extensions of public transportation, allowing residents to have better
connectivity by conveniently commuting from their location to others.
As a consequence, the OR has constantly increased from 65.1 percent
in January 2016 to 73.5 percent in August 2018. Even with improved
public transport system in the province, OR in Nonthaburi is relatively
lower than two peer territories, Bangkok (82.3 percent) and Samut
Prakan (84.8 percent) (Figure 3).
For units identified as unoccupied, such group can be defined by
adopting Threshold or level of energy consumption per month as
mentioned earlier to classify this type into 2 categories, empty rooms

Information gathered from AREA staff. In business practice, achievement of a project is
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justified under sales of residential unit is above 70 percent within 1.5 years since its launch.
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