Page 130 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 5

CPS1144 Adeniji Nike Abosede et al.
At aggregate level

More simply,
structural VAR model or simply called
primitive system
1
Through normalization technique, we multiply eq(5) by B , we have

Yt = total export, zt=naira dollaer exchange rate, and e1t, e2t are the error terms
which are composite to the structural innovation from the restricted vecto
auto regression.

c T
where B = cofactor of B, (B ) Transpose
c
Further, the study of dynamic relationship at disaggregate level between
(non – oil, oil export) and naira dollar exchange rate is forwarded by repeating
eq(3) to eq(7) , and the procedure is carried in the say way.

Now where =1-b21b12,

,’ ,s 2
 s are white noise, thus e (0, i)

Where

is time dependent, and same as for Var ( )
2

eq(7) is estimated with ordinary least square regression model since the right
hand side consists of predetermined variables and the error are due to white
noise. When fitting of the dynamic model is done, we proceed ahead and
determine how much of a change in a variable is due to its own shock and due
to shock of other variables at both aggregate and disaggregate level. This has
been the interest in this research studies, and this is achieved by the forecast

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