Page 338 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 7

CPS2120 Grażyna Trzpiot et al.
Economic and demographic variables are derived from Eurostat database
(variables 1-9) and OECD (variable 10), stock quotes – from stock exchange
(Frankfurt, Madrid, Warsaw) and financial database (the Yahoo Finance)
(variables 12 and 13). Time series were obtained for the time period 2010-
2016. It is not wide period of time, thus some data were converted to monthly
frequency (and then all variables were expressed as indices using a base year
of 2010), with maintaining the strength and direction of correlation between
variables. The period does not cover years from the financial crisis to avoid
unusual observations from financial market.
Relations between the above-mentioned variables and longevity are
analyzed in empirical studies. Some relations are clear, while others are still a
subject of debate (in particular, the impact of longevity on inflation is unclear).
Due to the complexity of these relations and their multidimensionality, it is
worth mentioning a few confirmed consequences of longevity (e.g. Bloom et
al., 2010; Rachel and Smith, 2015; Maestas at al., 2016; Acemoglu and
Restrepo, 2017): reducing investment return, reducing public saving, reducing
growth rates, reducing real interest rates, affecting labor supply and returns,
reallocation of saving from riskier to safe assets may lead to potential
mispricing of risk, running down assets may result in negative wealth effects.
Based on the results of Majewska and Trzpiot (2016) mentioned above
variables could be grouped into five clusters: standard of living risk, elderly
needs risk, financial risk, longevity risk and long-term investment risk.
However, it should be taken into account that the time period in their research
covered years of financial crisis 2008-2009. All calculations were made in R
software environment.

3. Result
Empirical investigation of relations between longevity phenomenon and
selected macroeconomic and financial variables is made for selected European
countries with different level of economic growth and life expectancy, i.e. for
Germany, Spain and Poland. From longevity perspective, life expectancy (at
birth and at aged 65, for both sexes) in Poland is shorter than in Germany, and
Spain, while life expectancy is the highest in Spain. Spain is expected to
become the world’s second oldest country by 2050, behind Japan. According
to HDI index Germany – since 2010 – has been in the group of five the most
developed countries, Spain – in the second ten, and Poland – in the third ten
the most developed countries in world (UNDP, 2018).

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