Page 253 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 4

CPS2219 Hasih P. et al.

Stress transfer modeling Dueto earthquake
activity (Case study on Java Island and Bali Nusa
Tenggara Islands)
2
1
2
Hasih Pratiwi , UpikHandayani , Andreas Rony Wijaya
1 Statistics Department, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Surakarta, Indonesia
2 Mathematics Department, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Surakarta, Indonesia

Abstract
Indonesia has a high seismic activity, so we need a disaster management to
reduce the risk. Point process is one of the stochastic aspect in disaster
management. In point process, a sequence of earthquakes is seen as a
collection of points that are random in a space and time, and a conditional
intensity function is used to determine the probability of earthquake
occurrence. An elastic rebound theory explains a stress release model
considering increased stress in an area and stress released during an
earthquake over a period of time. On analysis of earthquake data, a region has
interactions with neighboring regions of stress transfer that has not been
considered in the stress release model, it developed into a linked stress release
model. The aimof this research is to estimate parameters so can be of
conditional intensity function of linked stress release model on earthquake
data in Java Island and Bali-Nusa Tenggara Islands. The conditional intensity
function of linked stress release model is the development of the conditional
intensity function of stress release model by considering interregional
interactions. Maximum likelihood method is used to obtain parameters
estimate of the conditional intensity function of linked stress release model.
Based on the conditional intensity function of the linked stress release model
on earthquake data in Java and Bali-Nusa Tenggara, there is influence of stress
transfer caused by earthquake in the regions which is dominated by the
proportion of stress from the region itself. Intensity of earthquake in Java is
relatively higher than in the Bali-Nusa Tenggara.

Keywords
Point process; earthquake; stress release model; intensity function

1. Introduction
Indonesia is in areas that have high seismic activity and is prone to
earthquake disaster. This condition is because Indonesia is located between
the meeting of three large plates, that is the Eurasian Plate, the Indo-Australian
Plate, and the Pacific Plate. The earthquake disaster can certainly have a big
impact. Therefore, a natural disaster management is needed to minimize the
impact of the earthquake disaster.

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