Page 258 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 4

CPS2219 Hasih P. et al.
Table 1: Estimated parameters of the conditional intensity function of the
linked stress release model on earthquake data in Java and Bali-Nusa
Tenggara.

Region Parameter Parameter
estimation
Java a1 -1.56865330
b1 0.01200591
c11 2.00653527
c12 -0.50834458
Bali-Nusa Tenggara a2 -1.47601543
b2 0.01246046
c21 0.32708324
c22 0.89687253

Based on equation (8), the parameter vector of the conditional intensity
function of the linked stress release model is = ( ; ; ) '. Then an

;

parameters estimation of the conditional intensity function from the linked
stress release model uses the maximum likelihood method and Newton
Raphson. The parameter estimation results of the conditional intensity
function of the linked stress release model on earthquake data in Java and
Bali-Nusa Tenggara are shown in Table 1.
Based on the conditional intensity function of the linked stress release
model in equation (4.9) and parameter estimation in Table 1, the conditional
intensity function for Java and Bali-Nusa Tenggara respectively is
(| )= exp (-1.56865330+0.01200591(t-(2.00653527 () − 0.50834458 ()
̂

2

and
(| )= exp (-1.47601543+0.01246046(t-(0.32708324 () 0.89687253()
̂

Based on the estimation of linked stress release model parameters on
earthquake data in Java, it is seen that is greater than , it means that
11
12
the proportion of pressure in the Java region is greater due to pressure in the
Java region itself and 22 greater than means the proportion of pressure in
21
the Bali-Nusa Tenggara region is greater due to pressure in the Bali-Nusa
Tenggara region itself. From the results that has been obtained it can be seen

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