Page 149 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 5

CPS1159 Philip Hans Franses et al.
be quite substantial, again for reliability. This might hamper its use for some
variables and sample sizes in macroeconomics.
Further applications of the new regression should shine light on its
practical usefulness. The method does have conceptual and face validity, but
more experience with data and forecasts for more variables related to more
countries should provide more credibility.

Figure 1: The intervals of Table 2.

Table 1: An example of the data
Survey Date: Gross Domestic
May 13, 2013 Product
real, % change
2013 2014
Consensus (Mean) 1,932 2,702

High 2,300 3,380
Low 1,572 2,007
Standard Deviation 0,159 0,319
Number of Forecasts 29 29
UBS 2,300 3,000
American Int'l Group 2,200 2,600
First Trust Advisors 2,200 3,000
Ford Motor Company 2,172 2,996
Morgan Stanley 2,100 2,500
Eaton Corporation 2,053 2,887
Action Economics 2,000 2,800

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