Page 150 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 5

CPS1159 Philip Hans Franses et al.
RDQ Economics 2,000 2,600
General Motors 1,960 2,968
Goldman Sachs 1,959 2,914
Swiss Re 1,953 3,220
Macroeconomic Advisers 1,941 2,968
Moody's Analytics 1,940 3,380
Northern Trust 1,906 2,722
Citigroup 1,900 2,800
DuPont 1,900 3,000
Fannie Mae 1,900 2,500
Inforum - Univ of Maryland 1,900 2,600
Wells Capital Mgmt 1,900 2,600
Univ of Michigan - RSQE 1,880 2,735
Credit Suisse 1,868 2,300
PNC Financial Services 1,846 2,398
Nat Assn of Home Builders 1,843 2,622
IHS Global Insight 1,841 2,799
Barclays Capital 1,803 2,272
Wells Fargo 1,800 2,100
Bank of America - Merrill 1,756 2,684
The Conference Board 1,643 2,374
Georgia State University 1,572 2,007
Table 2: Forecasts and vintages as symbolic data. For the years 1996 to 2013
there are 7 vintages of quotes. For the month May in year t there are in
between 20 to 30 forecasts. The data in this table are the lower and upper
bounds of the intervals of these observations. The data are rounded (at two
decimal places) for expository purposes.

Vintages of real GDP growth Forecasts
Lower bound Upper bound Lower bound
Year
1996 2.45 3.79 1.80
1997 3.76 4.49 2.40
1998 3.66 4.45 2.80
1999 4.05 4.85 3.20
2000 3.67 5.00 3.90
2001 0.23 1.24 1.10
2002 1.60 2.45 2.20
2003 2.51 3.11 1.90
2004 3.58 4.44 4.30
2005 2.95 3.53 3.20
2006 2.66 3.32 2.80
2007 1.79 2.23 1.70
2008 -0.28 1.23 0.80
2009 -3.28 -2.19 -3.87
2010 2.47 3.08 2.86
2011 1.74 1.91 2.21
2012 2.04 2.78 1.99
2013 1.86 1.91 1.57

139 | I S I W S C 2 0 1 9