Page 267 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 7

CPS2094 Yoshimitsu Morinishi et al.

Causal inference in sport date ~Causal model of
fly ball revolution in NPB
Yoshimitsu Morinishi , Kazunori Yamaguchi
2
1
1 Graduate School of Business, Rikkyo University
2 Nishi-Ikebukuro, Toshima-ku, Tokyo

Abstract
In case of Japanese professional baseball NPB, we construct causal inference
and causal model from sports data. Specifically, in the theme of "flyball
revolution" which is sweeping the major league in the United States in recent
years, we construct causal model on whether we can adapt at NPB and
examine whether the "flyball revolution" at NPB is correct or not. I will also
describe the usefulness of causality reasoning in sports and the usefulness of
causal reasoning in observational research in future society. Study the
literature of past causal inference and establish a method to extract causal
effects from data. Formulate and verify a causal model for baseball 'flyball
revolution at NPB'. Construct a causal model and adopt SEM (structural
equation model) as a measure method of causal effect. From the result of the
constructed causal model, we evaluate and verify flyball revolution at NPB and
verify the effectiveness of causal reasoning in sports. From the result of the
causal model, the significance of the contribution of each explanatory variable
(both latent variable).

Keywords
Causal inference; sport data; Saber Metrics

1. Introduction
Today, with the development of information technology and the spread of
the Internet, many data are accumulated, many organizations possessing large
amounts of data such as big data, and the era of utilizing data everywhere is
about to come. With such changes in society as a background, as the value of
data itself rises, it is considered that building a model that can discover a
causal relationship between data is extremely valuable. In this research, we will
study methodology to clarify causal mechanism underlying natural
phenomena and human behavior from sports data, from the above problem
consciousness and motivation.

2. Purpose
In case of Japanese professional baseball NPB, we construct causal
inference and causal model from sports data. Specifically, in the theme of
"flyball revolution" which is sweeping the major league in the United States in
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