Page 111 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 8

CPS2210 Justyna Majewska et al.

Single and two-population mortality rate
modeling for selected CEE countries
Justyna Majewska, Grażyna Trzpiot
Department of Demography and Economic Statistics, University of Economics in
Katowice,Poland, 40-881 Katowice
Abstract
Multi-population models for modeling and forecasting mortality rates have
been the major focus of many authors since the seminal work by Lee and Li
(2005). Models are typically based on the assumption that the forecasted
mortality experiences of two or more related populations converge in the long
run. We compare two-population mortality model by Li and Lee (2005) (for
pairs of populations) and Lee-Carter model (1992) for each population
independently. The aim of the paper is to derive evidence for similarity of some
populations from Central and Eastern Europe in order to model and forecast
mortality rates using multi-population models.

Keywords
mortality; multi-population; common stochastic trends

1. Introduction
Recent decades have seen significant improvements in mortality in most
developed countries. A variety of different models have been considered in
the literature and practice. For many years, the Lee-Carter mortality projection
methodology (Lee and Carter 1992) has been the benchmark extrapolative
mortality forecasting method (Booth and Tickle 2008; Shang et al. 2011;
Stoeldraijer et al. 2013). Lee-Carter model has been supplemented by a variety
of alternatives that might be considered improvements on the single-factor
LC model according to a variety of criteria (e.g. Brouhns et al. 2002; Currie et
al. 2004; Renshaw and Haberman 2006; Cairns et al. 2006; Hyndman and Ullah
2007).
A number of authors have considered multi-country and methods
comparisons. Janssen (2018) provides a shortly overview of important recent
advances in mortality forecasting and the current available advanced mortality
forecasting approaches. Booth and Tickle (2008) reviews the main
methodological developments in mortality modelling and forecasting since
1980 under three broad approaches: expectation, extrapolation and
explanation. Cairns et al. (2009) compare quantitatively different stochastic
models explaining improvements in mortality rates in selected countries.
Macdonald et al. (1998), Tuljapurkar et al. (2000) and Booth et al. (2006) make
some qualitative comparisons of various countries using single-population
models. Numerous studies do not provide a conclusion which model – in
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