Page 213 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 6

CPS1892 Yang Xinhong
"macro-index-estimation-method" or "indirect-estimation-method" to
estimate the scale of "NOF", which is apt to subject to the theoretical basis of
the relationship between "NOF" and other macroeconomic indicators.
Without being able to clarify the theoretical relationship between "NOF" and
the official economy, the estimation outcome will inevitably be biased.
Therefore, this paper intends to explore the application of micro-method, that
is, "direct-estimation-method", with self-employed households in Shenzhen
as samples. This method calculates the scale of "NOF" and the added value of
"NOF" activities, basing on the data obtained through the statistical survey of
the objects involved in the "NOF". The theoretical value of this research lies in
the first attempt in China to determine the scale of "NOF" activities by direct-
survey-method, while its practical significance lies in providing reference for
further improving the system of statistical methods, improving statistical work,
understanding the situation of off-balance-sheet finance and cash flow from
abnormal channel, and facilitating financial activities better serve the real
economy.

2. The Design of "NOF" Survey Scheme
As both a leading frontier of reform and opening up and a model city of
economic transformation, Shenzhen's pillar industry is the financial industry.
With both the enormous scale of traditional financial activities over the years
and the vigorous development of various emerging financial industries in
recent years, the financial indicators have maintained sustainably stable
growth. By researching the scale of "NOF" in the real economy of Shenzhen
and further studying its disturbance to the economic operation, the
government is able to correctly judge the financial and economic situation,
thus to facilitate the decision-making to accurately implement various
financial policies.
2.1 The Scope, Object and Content of the Survey
With various economic entities in the System of National Accounts, capital
flow accounting is classified into the sectors of non-financial enterprises,
financial institutions, government and household. According to the
characteristics of China, economic units are divided into enterprises, self-
employed households, households and administrative institutions.
Considering the principle of feasibility, the scope and object of this survey are
"NOF" loan activities of self-employed households within Shenzhen. "NOF"
loan activities refer to the activities to finance the operating capital by
economic units through commercial credit (inter-enterprise loan, credit), folk
lending usury, social fund-raising and interpersonal loan. The specific
classification of economic units and the subjects of this survey are shown in
Table 1.

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