Page 97 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 3

CPS1952 Michele N. et al.

Figure 1: (a) The mean adjusted seasonality index estimates over the LAC
region and (b) the standard deviation where square roots have been applied
to highlight the spatial heterogeneity. The white regions denote areas with
no Pv API data.

Figure 2: (a) Mean start month and (b) associated standard deviation for the
first transmission season in the LAC region.

4. Discussion and Conclusion
Using a spatio-temporal statistical model, we related malaria seasonality
to environmental drivers and derived useful information on transmission
seasons. Although our focus has been on mapping these, our methodology
has other use cases. For example, by multiplying the monthly proportion
estimates with the API, we can compute the monthly case or parasite incidence
(MPI) at each location without developing a separate model for MPI itself. In
addition, the different stages of the methodology can be used separately: if

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