Page 207 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 8

CPS2252 Zakaya R.
Table 6: Estimation of VECM model
D(X) D(HDI) D(IQ)

CointEq1 -1.573054 -4.39E-05 -0.053147
(0.09191) (0.00029) (0.02070)
[-17.1157] [-0.14945] [-2.56806]

D(X(-1)) 0.269332 0.001165 -0.004773
(0.06964) (0.00022) (0.01568)
[ 3.86726] [ 5.24060] [-0.30436]

D(HDI(-1)) 203.9609 0.187286 6.162952
(32.5102) (0.10381) (7.32048)
[ 6.27375] [ 1.80403] [ 0.84188]

D(IQ(-1)) 5.053402 -0.006198 0.430450
(0.47897) (0.00153) (0.10785)
[ 10.5505] [-4.05204] [ 3.99110]

C -1.120724 0.004708 -0.014155
(0.19647) (0.00063) (0.04424)
[-5.70437] [ 7.50359] [-0.31996]

R-squared 0.811807 0.344799 0.189686
Adj. R-squared 0.803713 0.316618 0.154834
Sum sq. resids 88.84066 0.000906 4.504555
S.E. equation 0.977382 0.003121 0.220082
F-statistic 100.2933 12.23530 5.442598
Log likelihood -134.2479 428.9286 11.85806
Akaike AIC 2.841795 -8.651604 -0.139960
Schwarz SC 2.973681 -8.519718 -0.008074
Mean dependent -0.050254 0.005714 0.017857
S.D. dependent 2.206064 0.003775 0.239394

Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) 2.36E-07
Determinant resid covariance 2.01E-07
Log likelihood 338.3399
Akaike information criterion -6.537548
Schwarz criterion -6.062758

3.1 The long run causality
The OLS (ordinary least squares) method were used to discuss about
the significance of the model. We found that the error correction term C(1)
which is -1.57 is negative and significant at the level of 5% because of -
17.11 statistic which is low 0.09. So there is a long-run relationship between
the three (3) variables. Then, it exists an impact in long-term between
exports flows, human ressources and institutional quality.

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