Page 208 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 8

CPS2252 Zakaya R.
3.2 The short run causality
The wald test were conducted to determine the significance of
coefficients.
 Human resources development
According to the short term causality results, the p value statistic
associated to C(3) is lower than 0.05. So the coefficient is significant at the
5% level. We can consider human resources devlopment explains exports
flows in short term.
 Institutional quality
As we can see, the the p value statistic associated to C(4) is lower than
0.05. So the coefficient is significant at the 5% level. We consider that
institutional quality explains exports flows in short term in WAEMU
countries.
Table 7: Estimation of VECM model
Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C(1) -1.573054 0.091907 -17.11567 0.0000
C(2) 0.269332 0.069644 3.867262 0.0002
C(3) 203.9609 32.51020 6.273751 0.0000
C(4) 5.053402 0.478971 10.55053 0.0000
C(5) -1.120724 0.196468 -5.704366 0.0000
R-squared 0.811807 Mean dependent var -0.050254
Adjusted R-squared 0.803713 S.D. dependent var 2.206064
S.E. of regression 0.977382 Akaike info criterion 2.841795
Sum squared resid 88.84066 Schwarz criterion 2.973681
Log likelihood -134.2479 Hannan-Quinn criter. 2.895140
F-statistic 100.2933 Durbin-Watson stat 2.278503
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

3.3 Granger causality
According to Granger causality test, we rejected that IQ does not
Granger cause HDI. We also reject HDI does not Granger cause X and also
X does not Granger cause HDI were rejected. So there is a relation of
causality of IQ on HDI, HDI on X and X on HDI.

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