Page 235 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 6

CPS1907 Klaudia M. T. et al.
3. Data
The GDP flash estimation in Hungary built on bottom up approach by
production side, and fit autoregressive models with explanatory variables on
ten sections (A10) breakdown of Statistical
Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE).
(Cserháti et al. (2009)) The information and communication industry had 4.3%
share in the GDP in 2017, and it included the branches which are listed in the
Table 1.
Table 1 The sections of information and communication industry
J58.. - Publishing activities
J59.. - Motion picture, video and television programme production, sound
recording and music publishing activities
J60.. - Programming and broadcasting activities
J61.. - Telecommunications
J62.. - Computer programming, consultancy and related activities
J63.. - Information service activities
The first three activities include activities which are connected to the
media activities, and the last three include the activities relating
telecommunication and information technology. Therefore the sections were
grouped. The 61-63 sections are estimated utilizing the physical indicators of
information technology and telecommunication by TVC model. The estimated
result will be built in the autoregressive model of information and
communication. The 61-63 sections had a share of 78% of gross value added
in information and communication industry in 2017.
The available physical indicators such as mobile phone minutes, landline
phone minutes, number of pieces of internet in connected lines, other internet
access, wireless, x digital subscriber line (xdsl), cable TV and the number of
employees in information and communication industry seem to be good
proxies to forecast of gross value added of the Information and
communication industry. Based on preliminary examination two main
problems are faced. The first is that in some periods are the physical indicators
significant and in other periods appear they to be insignificant because of
structural breaks. The development of physical indicators cause two problems.
The first problem occurs due to the substitution of telecommunication
channels. The second problem is related to the diffusion of new technologies
with the further existence of previous technologies.
The spread of telecommunication networks in Hungary is a good example
to show the penetration of new infrastructure related to cross-fertilization of
technological changes. The Figure 2 draws up the number of wired, mobile
internet subscription, as well the number of fixed and mobile phone lines.

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