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IPS153 John D.

̂
= ̂ for = 1 or 2

Where is the size of the set ∩ , is the size of the set

:
:

∩ and is the size of the set ( ∩ ) ∩ ( ∩ ).

:

The DSE setup to estimate can described as follows

(i) List A is the set ∩ .

(ii) List B is the set ∩ , , = 1, 2, = 1, 2 and ≠ .

(iii) Both list A and list B are subsets of ∩ the population of Stayers

in

(iv) Linkage based on official identification numbers ensures no linkage
error.
(v) satisfies the homogeneous capture assumption for population ,

and as ( ∩ ) ∈ then ∩ will satisfy the homogeneous

capture assumption when estimating the size of the population

∩ .

This approach gives two estimators for depending on which of or
1

is taken as the starting point which could be combined if desired.
2

3. Discussion and concluding remarks
A theme running through this paper is adherence to the demographic
accounting principle that the change in stocks (population estimates) from
one period or timepoint to the next is equal to the difference in the associated
flows, inflows less outflows (Inflows = Births + Immigration, Outflows = Deaths
+ Emigration). This principle underpins the traditional demographics cohort
component approach , a flows first based approach, used to derive post-censal
population estimates and is the basis on which a coherent, census based
system of population estimates has traditionally been built. However, this
system is prone to significant revisions when post-censal estimates are
replaced with higher equality inter-censal estimates. The PECADO project
proposes a stocks first based approach to a modern system of population
estimates. Population estimates for the years 2011 to 2016 have to date been
1
released by CSO as research outputs . This paper describes an extension of
these methods to estimate gross population flows in an overall coherent
system of population estimates.
The aspiration or goal of census modernisation is to generate a high
quality SPD with one record per person and no erroneous records. Once this
goal is achieved, the methodology becomes less important. When SPD’s are

1 http://www.cso.ie/shorturl/480
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