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CPS2160 Aye Aye Khin et al.
they are cointegrated and also a long-run equilibrium relationship between the
two variables. Table 4.4 shows Japan’s granger causality analysis results. In the
Engle-Granger test, F-statistics of the two variables of import demand (nrimp)
to world NR price (nrstr20) is significant at α 0.10 level. Therefore, there is a
variable import demand (nrimp) “Granger causes” a variable world NR price
(nrstr20) and the direction of granger causality relationship is unidirection.
Then, there is a cointegrated and long-run equilibrium relationship between
the two variables of nrimp and nrstr20. In the Engle-Granger test, F-statistics
of the two variables of exchange rate (exrm) to import demand (nrimp) is
significant at α 0.10 level. Therefore, there is a variable exrm “Granger causes”
a variable nrimp and the direction of the granger causality relationship is
unidirection. Then, there is cointegrated and also a long-run equilibrium
relationship between the two variables exrm and nrimp. In the Engle-Granger
test, F-statistics of the two variables of import demand (nrimp) to SMR20 price
(nrsmr20) is significant at α 0.10 level. Therefore, there is a variable import
demand (nrimp) “Granger causes” a variable SMR20 price (nrsmr20) and the
direction of granger causality relationship is unidirection. Then, there is a
cointegrated and long-run equilibrium relationship between the two variables
of nrimp and nrsmr20.
From the result of this study, the independent variables that include world
price, exchange rate and export price has significant impact on import model of
natural rubber. Since the supplier and consumer unable to control the price of
NR, because the price of NR was affect by the demand and supply of the market
(Teh, 2015; Tulasombat et al., 2015; & Khin et al., 2017). It is also important to local
farmers to develop a market strategy to improve the production of natural rubber
when the prediction of import natural rubber by others countries will increase in
near future (Sakan, 2012). Recommendations for future study, the findings of this
study able to provide information to fill the gap by determine the import volume
on current and potential market such as China, India, USA and Japan and also
market participants in their consumptions and financing decisions due to NR is
an important commodity for world market.

References
1. Hnin, E. (2017). Economic Importance of Rubber in Thailand. Retrieved
from http://ap.fftc.agnet.org/ap_db.php?id=819
2. IRSG (2017). Latest Rubber Statistical Bulletin. International Rubber Study
Group, 111 North Bridge Road, #23-01/06 Peninsula Plaza, Singapore
179098.
3. Kannan, M. (2013). The Determinants of Production and Export of
Natural Rubber in India. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance, 1(5),
41-45.

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