Page 288 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 6

CPS1932 Carlos A. M. D.

Spatial analysis for forced displacement and war
actions: Colombian case
Carlos A Mantilla Duarte
Universidad Industrial de Santander, Bucaramanga, Colombia

Abstract
From 2011 to 2016, Colombia Government and Colombian Revolutionary
Armed Forces held dialogues in order to end the armed conflict in Colombia.
Spatial relationships can be explained using spatial data analysis
methodologies to compare spatial configuration before and after dialogs. This
relationships was analyzed using spatial statistical methodologies like Moran’s
I (Global and Local) and Spatial Regression comparing likelihood functios
from SAR, SEM and SDM models. The SDM Model fitted better in both cass.
It’s necessary to analyze missing data to adjust Spatial Panel Data Models or
complement with functional data analysis.

Keywords
Spatial Analysis; Spatial Models, Spatial Correlation; Changes in Spatial
Relationships

1. Introduction
Since 2011, Colombia government began negotiations with Colombian
Revolutionary Armed Forces (a.k.a. FARC) with the objective to end an armed
conflict with more than 50 years of duration. Mantilla (2017) describes spatial
relationships between some common factors about armed conflict in
Colombia. But, the spatial configuration of the variables shows some changes
that are not described in the work of Mantilla (2017).
This paper research a different approach to describe the changes that the
variables show using Global and Local Spatial Correlation Moran’s Indexes
and Spatial Regression likelihood function from SAR, SEM and SDM models.
The first part contains a summary of methods used in the analysis. After this,
the paper exhibit the results of analysis and, finally, exposes a short discussion
about the models fitted and contains conclusions,

2. Methods
The selected variables are based on the work of Mantilla (2015, 2017) and
Mantilla & Angulo (2017). The data set corresponds to open data by Office for
the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs United Nations in Colombia (OCHA-
UN), The Observatory of Human Rights in Colombia, the Directorate of
Criminal Investigation and INTERPOL of the National Police (Colombia) - DIJIN

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