Page 41 - Special Topic Session (STS) - Volume 2

STS452 Nobuhiro O.

Extended input-output model for demographic
change – Preliminary application to the Chinese
urbanisation
Nobuhiro Okamoto
Daito Bunka University, 560 Iwadono, Higashimatsuyama, Saitama, 355-8501, Japan

Abstract
China carries out “Urbanisation” as an economic policy which intends to
concentrate people in the urban area and boost the whole economic growth
on the basis of “Economy of Agglomeration” struggling with the pressure of
“middle-income trap” or “new normal.” The research question here is about
how the labour migration from rural areas to urban areas has an economic
and industrial impact on the Chinese economy, and whether or not the
geographical change between space is truly beneficial for Chinese economic
growth in the near future. To answer this question, this research develops the
extend input-output model based on the previous research such as Batey
(2018) and their other research, which focus on incorporating labour account
with Input-Output model. In Batey and others’ original model, the Input-
Output model has been developed into the economic model with a household
which takes account of immigrants from other regions, people who are out of
work, and ordinary labour force. This study develops this extended Input-
Output model for demographic change, in particular, change of population
movements from villages to cities in China since the urbanisation process is
seen as the continuous concentration of people in the certain areas, especially,
cities. The study will illustrate the preliminary results in the case of China by
using this model. Furthermore, the paper will discuss the possibilities of a wide
range of application of the Input-Output table in terms of demography.

Keywords
Demography; Urbanisation; Migration; Input-output analysis

1. Introduction
For the sustainable economic development of any region, its demography
is important. China, which is large populous country, has recently proceeded
the urbanisation and townisation as an economic policy since in order to
overcome the so-called ‘middle-income gap’, increasing the productivity of
cities, which is considered the decisive engine of the economic growth, by
concentrating the people in cities. The swelling population in urban areas
might have an important effect on the regional economy. However, the
previous researches have not clarified the interrelational process between
migration and economy such as how the migrants in cities affect the economy.

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