Page 428 - Special Topic Session (STS) - Volume 3

STS552 João Falcão Silva et al.
deposits, loans and securities. Data sources are scarce and obtaining
accurate/comparable data is very difficult within each country and across
different countries.
The issues relating to demographic changes cannot be ignored. When the
population changes, an effect on households’ well-being and resources is
observable and, consequently, calls for policy-actions. For example, under an
ageing population, there is less demand for educational services and more
7
demand for health services . Another concern is whether pension benefits are
sufficient to support individuals in the retirement age without any government
intervention. According to the SNA, a focus on such issues might suggest sub-
sectoring households according to income earner categorization . In addition,
8
demographic patterns will likely put pressure on potential output growth
rates, the natural rate of unemployment, and the long-term equilibrium
interest rate and on the monetary policy transmission mechanism. The
magnitude and the timing are uncertain as they depend on the behaviour of
consumers and businesses. Rising fiscal imbalances are projected to lead to
higher government debt-to-GDP ratios, potentially putting upward pressure
on interest rates, and crowding out productive investment.
Finally, the greater international labour and capital movements, have
significant implications on the international connections between resident
households and non-residents cannot be ignored.

3. Methodology
We use the LBS as the main data source to perform this empirical exercise.
These statistics are consistent with the BoP/IIP methodology, as they
correspond to claims/liabilities of residents in one country vis-à-vis those of
other countries. In addition, the LBS are best suited for macro analysis of
economic and financial stability issues. The linkages with these and other
statistical domains cannot be disregarded and should be part of the statistical
analysis. The LBS data covers information on the financial instruments (eg
loans and deposits and debt securities), currency, counterparty sector (e.g.
intragroup, central banks, unrelated banks and non-banks) and
counterparties’ geographical composition of resident banks’ balance sheets.
While the LBS data capture the non-bank sector since 1977, the
claims/liabilities of banks vis-à-vis subsectors of non-banks (households in
particular), are available only from the end-December 2013.

7 paragraph 24.42, SNA 2008.
8 If households sector is in work, relevant categorisation of working age but not in work or in
retirement (paragraph 24.43
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