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CPS1474 Jing R. et al.
Table 4. Results of cross-spectrum analysis between CCCI and SHOBOR,REC
Variable Frequency Monthly Coherenc Phase Monthly
Resonance y Time-
Period delays
b
a
SHOBOR 2 1.50 0.9915 0.0000 0.0000
1.2 2.50 0.5505 -1.4915 -0.5934
0.1 30.00 0.5121 1.8366 8.7693
0.5 6.00 0.6972 1.8323 1.7497
0.1 30.00 0.6931 0.5325 2.5425
1.7 1.76 0.6589 1.2820 0.3601
REC 0.6 5.00 0.6255 2.5415 2.0224
1.5 2.00 0.5596 0.0332 0.0106
1.6 1.88 0.5419 0.8495 0.2535
0.7 4.29 0.5363 -3.1185 -2.1271
1.4 2.14 0.5011 -0.3472 -0.1184
4. Discussion and Conclusion
CCCI presents the trend of steady ascension in the past decade, and the
psychological state of Chinese consumers has tended to be optimistic. At the
same time, we find that the variation trends of different sub-index have their
own characteristics, and their marginal impacts on CCCI also show time-
varying features. Results of this paper can present orientation of revised
measurement of CCCI in the future, that is we can consider assigning
different weights to different sub-indices for a more realistic comprehensive
index. In addition, we look forward to perfecting survey from dimensions and
survey time interval, also sample volume and its structure. At the same time,
we expect to introduce Bayesian thought and consider regional
heterogeneity to improve measurement of CCCI, so as to ensure that can be
more authentic, objective and representative.
Through cross-spectrum analysis results of CCCI and those major
economic indicators, it is further verified that all kinds of resonance periods
are not only common in these indicators with CCCI, but also closely
correlation between them in these resonance periods. However, on the other
hand, the fluctuations of various indicators are quite diverse in time-delays,
which is mainly determined by the transmission mechanism of periodic
variations between different economic activities. In addition to
demonstrating the leading and lagging relationship between CCCI and the
general economic situation, this study also incorporates different aspects of
export, domestic demand and investment into the analytical framework. It
further demonstrates the unique contributions of CCCI in three important
aspects of stimulating economic growth. In conclusion, while CCCI may not
have produced significant explanatory power on few macro-economic
indicators in specific resonance period, it is closely related to other major
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