Page 142 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 2

CPS1474 Jing R. et al.
the regional economy has no discernable swings effect on confidence.
Although consumers have insufficient confidence in housing prices, this has
not an excessive impact on their general confidence. We find that in
2009Q4, in addition to the investment sub-index, others all had surged
positive shock. However, investment sub-index has maintained a positive
act on CCCI since 2010, and it fluctuated around 0.4. At different times,
customer cognitive of price has a great difference of effect on their general
confidence, but this effect is not obvious. Lasting a long time, their attitude
towards prices ran counter to their general confidence. The above
observations were based on analysis with individual and whole angle. More
informative conclusions were drawn below from the significant time
variation in the relation between CCCI and macro-economy.

Relationship between CCCI and Economic Situation
Before cross-spectral analysis of CCCI and economic variables, white
noise tests should be carried out. Each sequence completely reject the null
hypothesis at a 1% level of significance that these sequences are not white
noise sequences. In order to estimate cross-spectrum and reduce estimation
variance of these non-white noise sequences, it is necessary to employ the
window function technique for weighted smoothing around the observed
series. According to Bloomfeild [10], Daniell window as a smoothing filter
for generating. Therefore, to examine the leading and lag relationships
between CCCI and economic variables, we prefer Daniell process with one
window that width equal to 3.
CCCI and General Economy Summarizing the presentations from
Table 1 reveals several important conclusions. At frequencies between 0.5-
1.3 (about 2.32-6 months), the coherences are within a fairly narrow range
0.52-0.66, which indicating there is a significant correlation between CCCI
and GDP with a short resonant period. The phases measure between 1.17-
1.71 at these periods manifest a lead of CCCI ahead of GDP by about 0.43 -
1.17 months. A phase lead of 0.93 at a long resonant period of 30 months,
which means CCCI over GDP by 4.5 months. In addition, over a medium
resonant period of 15 months, CCCI is about 2.1 months ahead of GDP
variation Results means that CCCI plays an important role in predicting GDP
in the short, medium and long term resonant period. It can be seen that
Chinese consumers ’willingness to consume has a high impact on the
general economic trends.

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