Page 143 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 2

CPS1474 Jing R. et al.
Table 1. Results of cross-spectrum analysis between CCCI and GDP

Frequency Monthly Resonance Coherency Phase Monthly Time-
b
a
c
Period delays
0.7 4.29 0.6506 1.7123 1.1679
0.6 5.00 0.6423 1.5278 1.2158
1.1 2.73 0.6100 1.0338 0.4487
0.5 6.00 0.5356 1.5463 1.4766
0.1 30.00 0.5350 0.9323 4.4513
1.3 2.32 0.5222 1.1687 0.4292
0.2 15.00 0.5068 0.8693 2.0752
a Monthly resonance period are calculated from: 1/ Frequency*3
b This paper lists the relatively high results (coherency >=0.5)
c Monthly time-delays are calculated from: Phase*(Monthly Resonance Period / 2*pi)
For above, the same below
CCCI and Exports As far as export are concerned, we use Net Exports
as its representative indicator. There is an important resonance relationship
between CCCI and NE with short, medium and long variation period, which
are interdependent and mutually restrictive. In the short resonance period
of 4 months, the phase leads of CCCI is nearly one month ahead of NE. In
the medium resonance period of 15 months, CCCI has a phase of 2.03
(about 4.8 months) leading variation trend of NE. Furthermore, a phase
leads about 10.7 months occurs in the long resonance period of 30 months.
However, in the resonance periods of 6-8 months, CCCI lags behind NE for
less than one month. The moral is that, there is a strong correlation between
CCCI and NE, and CCCI has a certain explanatory power to the future
variations of Net Exports.

Table 2. Results of cross-spectrum analysis between CCCI and NE
Frequency Monthly Coherency Phase Monthly
b
Resonance Period Time-delays
a
0.9 3.33 0.8040 0.9580 0.5083
0.5 6.00 0.7552 -0.7503 -0.7165
1.3 2.31 0.7188 1.9443 0.7141
0.8 3.75 0.6164 1.7361 1.0361
0.4 7.50 0.6155 -0.2380 -0.2840
0.2 15.00 0.5395 2.0298 4.8457
0.1 30.00 0.5336 2.2343 10.6681

CCCI and Domestic Demand In terms of domestic demand, this paper
considers two important representative variables, RSCG and CPI. RSCG is the

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