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CPS1474 Jing R. et al.
indicators in different resonance periods and can be used as a leading
indicator of these phenomena. By measuring the confidence and its
variations of consumers in different resonance periods, which can not only
provide effective monitoring of the future trends of major economic
variables, but also can be used to anticipate market fluctuations.
However, there are still some several limitations in our study. First,
because of month-on-month figures which would normally be inaccessible,
we calculated year-on-year values on the raw data as the representative of
economic variables separately. Secondly, whether the seasonal adjustment
of consumer confidence index is needed in the process of analysis needs
further discussion. Considering that consumer confidence index reflects the
mental state of consumers, which are subjective judgment of them on
economic phenomena, and there are also no obvious seasonal variations.
Finally, this article only examines leading and lagging relationships between
CCCI and various variables, but has not verified the extent of impact and
effectiveness of prediction of CCCI. This is a convinced step toward our future
research framework.

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