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CPS2129 Matilde Bini et al.
is consistent with the general economic cycle. The level of profitability (ROE)
is well predictable by the same quadratic function. The industries in which the
Italian manufacturing is stronger (i.e. mechanical and chemical productions)
are the ones for which the recovery in terms of riskiness indicators after the
crisis is faster and stronger. From an economic point of view: it is relevant in
the period the impact of double crisis (subprime and sovereign debt). This
implies a W-shaped trend for quite all economic indicators. This is particularly
true for firms’ riskiness and the indicators representing it. The estimated curve
parameters imply a first period of increasing riskiness and a second period
characterized by a more and more decreasing riskiness. The second period can
be partitioned, in turn, into two sub periods in which two different factors
impact on riskiness. Right after the sovereign debt crisis (2011-2014) the
growth of riskiness was stopped by the effects of ACE (Aiuto alla Crescita)
provision, that strongly boosted the deleveraging process in the larger firms
(Zeli, 2018). The coming of the global economic recovery in 2014-2015 further
improved the riskiness indicators.

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