Page 294 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 6

CPS1935 Ahmed Oulad El Fakir

An attempt to determine a confidence interval
for the economic growth rate-Case of the
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Moroccan economy
Ahmed Oulad El Fakir
Haut-Commissariat of Planning

Abstract
In Morocco, several departments work out economic forecasts and publish
figures which are sometimes far from each other. These departments are the
Haut-Commissariat of Planning (HCP), the Ministry of Economy and Finance
(MEF), Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM which is the Moroccan Central Bank), the
Research Centers (including the Moroccan Center of the Conjoncture -or
CMC- which is close to the private sector’s corporates) and the International
Financial Institutions (including the International Monetary Fund -IMF- and/or
the World Bank). But, giving an estimate point for the economic growth rate
is always misleading and, usually, has some negative sides because it’s read
from different sides. That’s why it seems better to determine a confidence
interval for this rate and, for us, it will be a good idea to help to avoid some
misleading interpretations, mainly those which are political. The aim of this
paper is to provide a confidence interval for the economic growth rate. This is
intended to avoid political speculation for the determination of economic
growth in Morocco.

Keywords
Economic budget; forecast; point estimate; confidence interval
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The growth of the economy is the concern of each government because it
represents the degree of evolution of this country’s wealth. This growth
essentially reflects GDP growth, which is the value added’s growth. So, to help
economic operators making the right decisions in the right time, forecasts are
made to save money, reduce the costs of an operation, have visibility on an
uncertain future, … etc.
But, giving an estimate point for the economic growth rate is always
misleading and, usually, has some negative sides because it’s read from
different sides. That’s why it seems better to determine a confidence interval
for this rate and, for us, it will be a good idea to help to avoid some misleading
interpretations, mainly those which are political.

The technical work of this paper is in progress. It’s a part from a doctorate thesis in economics.
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