Page 298 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 6

CPS1935 Ahmed Oulad El Fakir
Thus, despite this intellectual effort, we must not be too confident in
forecasting models since they cannot incorporate "surprise" variables or
events that may occur along the way. In addition, we need to involve everyone
in the economic decision-making process to help obtain good forecasts - not
subject to political speculation - in terms of both short-term forecasting and
medium/long term economic projections. Finally, the forecasts must be
developed in the form of an interval and avoid giving oneoff forecasts that
have shown that they are never reached.
Theoretical considerations
After the previous introduction, the aim of this paper is to provide a
confidence interval for the economic growth rate. This is intended to avoid
political speculation for the determination of economic growth in Morocco.
The theoretical work is in progress. It will be based on some papers that
deal with this issue and this paper is a part of a thesis in progress to obtain a
Doctorate Degree.

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