Page 295 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 6

CPS1935 Ahmed Oulad El Fakir
Who develops economic forecasts in Morocco?
In Morocco, several departments work out economic forecasts and publish
figures which are sometimes far from each other. These departments are the
Haut-Commissariat of Planning (HCP), the Ministry of Economy and Finance
(MEF), Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM which is the Moroccan Central Bank), the
Research Centers (including the Moroccan Center of the Conjoncture -or
CMC- which is close to the private sector’s corporates) and the International
Financial Institutions (including the International Monetary Fund -IMF- and/or
the World Bank).
The production of these forecasts by several departments is laudable, but
sometimes it is confusing and misleading for economic agents. Some
specialists speak about a "war of figures" which affects the credibility of the
statistical system of our country. In this case, which department to trust: the
MEF? the HCP? The BAM? the CMC? the IMF? or the World Bank? etc.
In the HCP, the economic forecasting process is as follows: towards the
summer of the current year (year t), the HCP prepares its exploratory economic
budget for the coming year (year t + 1). It submits this report to the Ministry
of the Economy and Finance, which is supposed to take it into account when
preparing the budget for the coming fiscal year (accompanied by an economic
and financial report supporting the measures to be taken, taking into account
the national and international contexts).
For example, for 2014, the HCP has already given a forecast of 2.4%. The
government, meanwhile, drafted the finance law on the basis of growth rate
of around 4.2%. For its part, the CMC forecast 2.7% as a maximum growth rate
for GDP in Morocco. World Bank forecasts were estimated at 3.6%. Who is
right and who is wrong? How to send signals of confidence to the national
and foreign economic operators regarding the soundness of our economy?
This contrast between the figures announced by different departments
reflects the lack of coordination and the gap between the departments
responsible for defining and adopting economic policies (government
departments) and those responsible for macroeconomic and forecasting
studies, which are generally non-governmental departments and/or
independent of government (such as the HCP, the CMC, the IMF and the World
Bank). Indeed, reading the figure announced by the government, a number of
questions arise: how the government was able to base its 2014 budget on the
assumption of an ambitious economic growth rate of 4.2% while the
economy’s growth is driven by domestic demand, which was hampered by a
wage freeze, a rise in prices following decompensation and a rainfall deficit
marking the beginning of this agricultural year (internally) and by anchoring
external demand essentially by partners who have not yet emerged from a
global economic crisis? What will happen to this domestic demand face to a
higher taxation (direct and / or indirect) and a withdrawal of several public

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