Page 296 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 6

CPS1935 Ahmed Oulad El Fakir
investments? Does the announcement of this 4.2% growth forecast in 2014
not require additional funding to be sought here or elsewhere? Does it not
reflect an excess of confidence on the part of the government (this is
reminiscent of the 7% growth rate announced by the ruling party during the
legislative campaign of 2012)?
This difference in forecasts stems - in part - from the different assumptions
adopted by each party, in addition to the ingredients and mathematical
models used to obtain these forecasts. This difference in assumptions reflects
the absence of an international consensus or even between the national
experts of the same country on a given economic situation or a particular
methodology. Moreover, no one can be exhaustive in determining the internal
and / or external factors that can affect the economic growth of a country.
Do forecasts meet our needs? Are these forecasts so useful even if they do
not meet our needs and are often far from reality? Do economists and/or
policy makers not feel ridiculed when the announced forecasts differ from the
realized numbers? Should we continue to produce these forecasts in the same
way that we are currently developing them? These are questions that have
emerged after examining the table that follows and which gives the forecasts
of the growth rate in Morocco between 2004 and 2018:
Evolution of expected and realized economic growth rates in Morocco
Forecast
economic Realized economic Absolute error Relative error of
Years
growth rate growth rate (in %) of forecast forecast (in %)
(in %)
2004 3,3 4,8 -1,5 -0,3
2005 2,6 3 -0,4 -0,1
2006 5,2 7,8 -2,6 -0,3
2007 3 2,7 0,3 0,1
2008 6,1 5,6 0,5 0,1
2009 6,7 4,8 1,9 0,4
2010 4,1 3,6 0,5 0,1
2011 4,6 5 -0,4 -0,1
2012 2,4 2,7 -0,3 -0,1
2013 4,6 4,4 0,2 0,0
2014 2,5 2 0,5 0,3
2015 3,7 4,5 -0,8 -0,2
2016 2,6 1,1 1,5 1,4
2017 3,5 4,1 -0,6 -0,1
5
2018 2,9 3,1 -0,2 -0,1
6
Source: Economic Budget Reports , HCP

5 Provisional figure.
6 The exploratory economic budgets prepared in June of the current year give the outlook for
the economy for the coming year. These exploratory economic budgets are expected to be
modified as part of the preparation of the projected economic budgets which are prepared in
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