Page 137 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 2

CPS1474 Jing R. et al.

Operation and dynamic analysis of Chinese
customer’s confidence index:
A survey over the past decade
Jing Ruan, Yanan Liu
School of Statistics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, China

Abstract
Survey, measurement and release of Chinese Customer’s Confidence Index
(CCCI) have gone through nearly a decade, which in order to look forward to
reflecting the confidence of Chinese in an all-round way to public and world.
This paper presents an operation and dynamic analysis of CCCI in the past
decade for comprehensively demonstrating the significance and values of our
survey data and compilation results. We mainly study the following two
aspects: conducting an analysis of the time varying influence of each sub-index
on the total index; discussing whether the CCCI plays a leading role in
predicting the macro-economic trends of the Chinese mainland from the
perspective of frequency domain. We find that the variation tendencies of
different sub-index have their own characteristics and their marginal impacts
on CCCI also show time-varying features. CCCI is closely related to most
majority indicators of macro-economy in different resonance periods and can
be used as a leading indicator of these phenomena.

Keywords
Chinese Customer’s Confidence Index; sub-index; time-varying features;
leading indicator

1. Introduction
As we all know, investment, consumption and exports are the three troikas
that are driving the zoom of the Chinese economy. At the meeting of the
Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in 2015, it was first proposed
to "continuously expand domestic demand". After a three-year interval, it once
again emphasized to "combine accelerating structural adjustment with
continuously expanding domestic demand". This shows that expanding
domestic demand has become a top priority, and the stability of consumer
confidence is critical to expanding domestic demand. Not only that, customer
confidence is usually reflected by a composite indicator that receives
considerable attention in daily life, because it is seen as a leading indicator
that can be used to predict macro-economic trends. It can reflect all aspects
of customer sentiment, which may affect their consumption tendency [1], also
can inevitably have an important impact on expanding domestic demand.
With continuous enhancement of Chinese economic strength, the customer

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