Page 138 - Contributed Paper Session (CPS) - Volume 2

CPS1474 Jing R. et al.
confidence has gradually matured, and their ability to withstand pressure has
gradually increased. Chinese Customer’s Confidence Index, including the
Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, has increasingly
become an important reference for predicting the economic situation [2]. Even
more remarkably, this index has been surveyed, compiled and released for
nearly ten years, and has caused a great social sense.
Consumers as economic agents, whether their confidence affects macro-
economic fluctuations have always been a controversial issue [3-7]. However,
the research on the relationship between confidence and China's macro-
economy is not only of theoretical values, but also of great application values.
China's unique national conditions determine that the study of this issue has
strong theoretical significance. China's market-oriented reform has not been
fully implemented. The socialist market economic system needs to be
improved, and consumers’ behaviour is not fully rational. Moreover, China's
macro-economy has been in a stable structural imbalance of high investment,
high export and low consumption. The proportion of investment and
consumption in GDP is significantly different from that of developed countries,
which lead to a great difference in the way and extent of the impact of
consumer confidence on macro-economy between China and capitalist
countries. Therefore, it is necessary to study whether Chinese Customer’s
Confidence Index can provide information on the economic operation earlier.
Built on the above considerations, this paper mainly studies the following
two aspects. First, conducting a comprehensive analysis of the time-varying
influence of each sub-index on the total index. So as to understand in detail
the level of consumer confidence in the economic environment and actual
socio-economic status. Secondly, from the frequency domain to discuss
whether the CCCI plays a leading role in predicting the macro-economic
trends of Chinese mainland and to further examine the relationship between
CCCI and Investment, Domestic Demand and Export, which also has certain
significance guidance for the Chinese government to formulate macro-
economic policies correctly. This paper also comprehensively demonstrates
the significance and values of our survey data and compilation results in the
past ten years.

2. Methodology

Materials and Data
The design of the CCCI survey program was based on traditional consumer
confidence index developed by University of Michigan in the USA. And
questionnaire adjusted by the actual situation in China, then conducts surveys
in Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan respectively. In order to
ensure the randomness of samples, meet the timeliness of data, and reflect

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