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CPS1878 Zakir H. et al.

                         Modelling randomization with misspecification
                          of the correlation structure and distribution of
                            random effects in a poisson mixed model
                                      1
                                                                          3
                                                         2
                         Zakir Hossain , Heiko Grossmann , Steven Gilmour
                           1 Department of Statistics, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh
                      2 School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Magdeburg, Germany
                          3 School of Mathematical Sciences, Kings College London, UK

            Abstract
            We consider the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) for the randomized
            complete  block  design  (RCBD)  with  random  block  effects.  The  variance-
            covariance  matrices  for  the  random  effects  are  derived  from  the
            randomization. The randomization of blocks and units within each block has
            been  modelled  by  using  the  wreath  product  of  two  symmetric  groups.
            Typically, the random effects in a GLMM are uncorrelated and assumed to
            follow a  normal distribution. However, in our case, the random effects are
            found to be correlated due to randomization. The impact of misspecification
            of the correlation structure and distribution of the random effects upon the
            estimation of fixed effects and variance components in a Poisson mixed model
            has been investigated via simulation studies. The simulation results show that
            misspecification  of  both  the  correlation  structure  and  the  random  effects
            distribution  has  hardly  any  effect  on  the  estimates  of  the  fixed  effects
            parameters.  However,  the  estimated  variance  components  are  frequently
            severely  biased  and  standard  errors  of  these  estimates  are  found  to  be
            substantially higher.

            Keywords
            Generalized  linear  mixed  model;  Randomized  complete  block  design;
            Symmetric group; Wreath product

            1.  Introduction
                The  random effects  in a  GLMM  are usually  assumed  to  have a  normal
            distribution. However, inferences that are based on the normality assumption
            may be incorrect if the actual distribution of the random effects is not normal.
            Recently it has been investigated how misspecification of the random effects
            distribution  affects  the  estimates  of  the  model  parameters.  To  this  end,
            simulation  studies  have  been  performed  which  have  lead  to  conflicting
            conclusions.  Some  studies  report  that  misspecification  has  a  strong  effect
            [Heagerty and Kurland (2001), Agresti et al. (2004), Litière et al. (2007, 2008),
            Hernández and Giampaoli (2018)] while others claim the contrary [Neuhaus et
            al. (2011), McCulloch and Neuhaus (2011), Neuhaus et al. (2011), Neuhaus et
            al. (2013)].

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